nothing ventured nothing gained

well, small loss, i underestimated wolfsburg, tipped them up the other week and looked back at that analysis after tonight's game, dunno just couldn't see them playing that well,i expected man u to win by 3 at least!!!!

anyway, looking at Thursday night footie now, also analysing the ARC. i expect sea the stars to win, but will wait before betting if i decide

kind r


lea

bets on ,just got in

i'll make this quixk as running a little late

going for the home certs tonight

man U & Real madrid double £2000 1.66 decimal bet365/betfred/corals/boylsports

Rooney anytime goalscorer £1000 5/6

Rooney first and last 7/2 general £300 each.

good luck

good, great, could have been even better

well what a night and there is more to come.

can believe leeds conceded late on, was watching skysports like a hawk.

going to have a nice pint now.

will have wed selctions up by 7pm


doubled the bank inside 3 months not bad even if i do say so myself!!!!!!

comments welcome!!!!!!

LUMP ON SEVILLA

i have decided to lump on sevilla after much consideration, couple of mates in scotland who views i respect have put the final nail in rangers coffi.

at this late stage ive managed to get on using betfair, which is not something i like to advise people as prices can change quickley.

have got on £3000 at 1.88.

its a lot and yes a huge percentage of my bank, but iam playing with the bookies money now and i feel i can start to take some risks

coudlnt resist this is just too temtping

focused on three teams this afternoon

Leeds 3/10 hills corals £750 win
notts County 19/20 bet365 10/11 corals 10/11 general £750 win
Cardiff 5/6 ladbrokes £1000 win

Plus a £1000 treble on the three teams 4.79 decimal BETFRED.

got most on this afternoon, and the rest on the Internet.

fingers crossed, milan is 1-1 at the minute and they have had a man off so not looking good.

get in my tevez my son

well man city won easy in the end, tevez was awesome.

how lucky was that west ham goal.

anyway, not one to rest on laurels. i fancy inter Milan strongly., not going to detail out facts but basically they need to win, have the quality within the team and should win by the odd goal. The defence should be able to see them through.

corals/betfed/bet365/paddypower 8/11 £2500 win.


no more bets until Wednesday

r

lea

Fw: Man City Reasoning

Some of you have commented that my write-ups on bets are not detailed enough.  This is because of two reasons, firstly I spend most of the time analysing and studying before I decide which bets to place and secondly getting the bets on takes a while.  I have tonight picked Man City to beat West Ham on both the normal betting market and the handicap (-1). Hopefully the following will give you an insight into how I come up with my assumptions:-

 

Please bear in mind this is the detailed analysis that goes into each selections

 

First the historic stats. Then the current stats, my assumptions, then the likely outcome.

 

Over the course of the last 3 seasons West Ham have played 57 premier away games, won 15, drawn 13, and lost 29.

 

They have scored in 84% of away games which is quite high when you compare with other teams in or around the top 10, but on average statistically they have conceded in every game.  That's not to say they conceded in every game but over the last 3 years they have conceded 1.4 goals per game away from home

 

Key stat – concede over 1.4 goals per away game

 

Over the course of the last 3 seasons Man city have played 57 premier home games, won 29, drawn 10 and lost 18.

 

They have scored on average in every home game, 1.36 goals per game.  Just looking over the last two seasons that is 1.78 goals per game. i.e when they started to bring in good players

 

Key stat Man City score on average 1.78 goals per home game

 

Key stat - West Hams heaviest away defeat was at Man City 2008/09 where they were gubbed 3 -0

 

Looking at this season

 

West Ham played 5, scored 5, concede 6, won 1, lost 3, drawn 1

 

Man City played 5, scored 11, conceded 6, won 4, lost 1, drawn 0

 

Stats wise – West Ham

 

West Ham win % 20% of games played won

Goals scored 1.0 per game

Goals conceded 1.2 per game

 

Whilst they have scored 1 goal per game away form home, 2 came against wolves and 1 against Bolton who between them have high goals against ratio

Key stat only one game won this season

 

Stats wise – Man City

 

Man City win % 80% of games played they have won

Goals scored per game 2.2

Goals conceded per game 0.8

 

Key stat, won 4 out of 5 and scoring 2.2 per game

 

To be fair were very unlucky to lose at the champions Man U.

 

My assumption is based on the following

 

In my view I feel Man City homes goals per game ratio will increase this season as they have a much improved squad with a number of proven premier league goalscorers.  Just looking at the last 3 seasons there has been a steady increase in this ratio.  Bear in mind that the team has never been better equipped to score than this season and current form figures back up this trend.

 

Looks like Santa Cruise is back, plus bellamy and Tevez who combined will provide goals

 

In terms of West Ham, whilst they have a decent historic away goals scored ratio, current form is very poor which means they will score less goals.  Across the previous seasons away form has been above average and as such the goals were scored.  I can see them conceding at least 2 goals this evening, based on the above noted facts. plus I simply cant see them scoring and feel Man City will just have too much for them.

 

 

Hope this gives a little insight.

 

PLEASE COMMENT

 

 

 sorry haven't got time to do the tevez first/ last goal reasoning

 

 

 

 

not going to plan.

well tonights bets not going to plan.

ac milan, very poor, still 10 mins to go in the other match, lets hope we get out alive.

will be lumping on Man City on Monday. will post up detailed analysis some time during tommorrow and it will give an insight into how i come to my assumptions.

So Man City £2000 win 2/5 general

Carlos Tevez first/ last goal 11/2 totesport £300 first goal £300 last goal

Plus take Man City on the handicap they have a -1 start so have to win by 2 goals or more. i fancy them to win by 3 or 4. so £2000 at 6/5 corals, stan james/ skybet

sould have been worse

fortune favors the brave, well i got lucky in the end.

horses didnt go to plan, sunderland won easy in the end, canny game, will be updateing profit and loss after tonights bets.

the only real highlight was that dad got paid out on bent for the last goal, appareantly sky confirmed it as a bent goal then its has been changed, fuck who cares. putting these bets on now

going abroad tonight to Italy and France.

AC milan 4/11 lads £1000 win

Bordeuax 4/6 general £1000 win


plus a double on the above 2.22 dec corlas/ boylesports £1000 double

additional bets - not much time to get these on

just putting up my additional selections as i have to get these on .dad is helping today and Ive decided to go to the mackam match.


Sunnyiside Tom - 16.15 musselbourough c/d winner, improving this year 3 wins 3 places. just pipped last time , good jockey booking must get a place at least £250 ew 100/30 bet365

Ascendent - 16.35 - 5/4 general. Sir mark sends only one horse to the track for a sunday run, umm. horse is on the upgrade, will be able to dominate, has form over further so stays the trip well, should skate in odds short but a winners a winner

NAP OF THE DAY £1000 win.

14.40 Ascot - Drill Sergant - 12/1 ladbrokes. good course record, should like the going and trip great e/w value £250 ew


15.15 Acot - Dream Eater - 11/1 Hills. drop back in trip should suit this horse as he tends to race keenly, trainer tends to have decent priced winners in races like this £300 ew Hills 11/1


15.50 Ascot - Guest book looks to have sneaked in here, eye catching jockey booking, won well last time, will improve £1000 win NEXT BEST 3/1 ladbrokes.

many of you will note that this is my biggestest betting day of the year, i have been up nealry all night going through the cards and feel these horses have great chances. sorry for the short writeup but most of the time is spend getting the bets on.

Plase take the 9/2 on offer for darren bent to score first/ last for sunderland. bent will score today.

£350 bent to score first 9/2 betfred
£350 bent to score last 9/2 betfred

£600 bent to score anytime 11/8 boylesports

up early bets on, lets crack this

was up early today and got the money on Sunderland easily, took about an hourand a half to get round, have also had some horse bets on what i believe to be good things today. have a free ticket to the sunderland match have till 2pm to decide whether or not to go, fucking hate sunderland but always a better match when you have money on it ummmm

Horses.

Lost in Paris 13.55 mussel £200 win 5/2 general. dropping back in trip, front runner, will be able to dominate should win cosily

Night Cru - £250 ew 9/2 general - 4pm market rasen - always jumps well, mccoy on board, should defo get a place.


more bets to come

just dont listen to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

going through a bit of a bad patch at the minute, need to stop the number of bets and focus on the ones i feel 85% confident on.

so.

sunder land £2500 win at 8/11 general.

nearly every bookie is taking the same stance, sunderland will win, home form is great, bent wants an England cap, 2//3// nil

forthy thirty 14.40 market rasen

this horse is special.


will at least get a place

snap up the 7/2 now, its skated in last time watch the race , please please watch the race. Then look at the favorite with Mccoy on board and tell me the 7/2 is not value

£250ew bet365/ stan james

bets sooner than i thought - going for it this weekend

Well it hasn't taken as long to put together the weekends bets as i had initially thought.I have few other horses but want to wait until the day before i put up other selections.

Going to be going in with some decent bets this weekend, to be honest iam sick of not backing selections that i fancy to a greater degree, and appreciate that i started this to make money and that's what we are going to do this weekend. i have identified what i believe are decent chances of success, would say certainties but don't want to put the mockers on it


First up would have been RIP van winkle, but i just keep having this nagging doubt in my mind about his chances, he has the best form, but something is stopping me betting this horse. please be careful in this race, something Will stop rip winning but i dont know what!!!!!!.

so we have the footie just for now


Football


Charlton 1/2 corals £500 win. charlton will have far too much for the piss that is exeter 100% confidence. thats all that needs to be said!!!!

Notts County 4/7 corals £500 win. notts county will win, sols gone players will be looking to make a point, key man lee hughes back in contention, should win by 2/3 goals.

Forfar 1/2 corals/bet365/betfred. forfar are looking to catch berwick at the top and have made a decent start to season, elgin on the other hand will be battling relegation and will struggle here, they have a number of injursy problems and i expect a comfortable home win £500 win.


I will also have a Trixie on the above noted selctions. a trixie, for those who dont know is a mix of doubles and treble on above noted teams. a £200 trixie equals total stake £800

small lost - could have been a different story

well, at least they all didn't lose. Dead Heat, I've seen it all now. and two fourths you have to laugh!!!!!

back to the drawing board, hoping for a tremendous weekend will be detailing out my selections tonight, finalising during work tomorrow and getting bets on tomorrow night and early Saturday morning. Some horses may follow later on Saturday after i check the cards. want to get all bets on early so i have more time to study ...

TAXI - goodnight

horses for thursday night

going to put up some selctions i feel will do us justice tonight. keeping the stakes lowish

8pm kempton - Pont D'avigon £100ew. good run last time, has decent pedigree, some improve alot and get a place at least. 6/1 general

8.30 kempton Stoic £250 win 3/1 general - the horse is on for the hatrick, will handle the ground should have too much for these.

9.00 kempton - Qausi congaree 7/1 general.been racing well of late, been off for a short while to freshen up, has beaten horses which have went on to win easily.

the nap of the night £250ew

Man City let us down

Please can somehow tell me how Manchester city got beat.

lokks at the fulham squad for tonight and please tell me.

a fucking joke!!!!!!

i just cant seem to get a run going!!!

its off to Manchestarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

been flying round as many hills shops as possible this afternoon after work. have managed to get £1800 at 1.77 for the manchester double, was allowed up to £300 in each shop quite easily. just a fucking pain getting round em all, is hills shop strategy to have them placed in the most obscure places!!!!!!!

man city & manchester united win 1.77 double £1800

wasnt going to have a bet but folliwing some further research late last night, which invloved looking at the records of both teams in the third round, particulary team selctions i was convinced that these two are home bankers.

going out now to watch the match, sorry for late post, will be looking to set up text alerts for those interested .

good luck

SUNDERLANNNNNNDDDD

well that was easy, wish they were all like that.

wont be getting too caried away, might put a football up for wednesday night, just working on stats now.

followers you seem to have dissapeared from the blog somehow!!! appear to be still there but not showing on blog ?????

flu had me laid low - BET OF THE MONTH!!!!!!!!!!!!

sorry for not posting at the weekend , wasn't feeling well at all so just left it in the end apart from channons shit horse!!!!

have just finished getting bets on.

Tonight's nap , BET OF THE MONTH is Sunderland at 8/11 lads/ corals / hills they are an absolute steal have managed to get £2200 on. most of it in the high street and a little with bet365 (450). I just cant see how a Birmingham side with reserves in and some poor first teamers can beat a Sunderland side who will be strong. yes they will rest some players but not to the extent of Birmingham who are down to the bare bones squad wise. Sunderland were unlucky at the weekend to Burnley and will be looking to bounce back, whereas Birmingham are trying to keep focused on the premier league and don't give two hoots about this competition. Bruce will want Sunderland to progress in this cup, make no mistake about that, he'll want to win, whereas MacLeish will just send the boys out for a run out. iam absolutely sure of it, honest i am

i really really fancy Sunderland to win comfortably tonight, and what with me being a Newcastle fan that is a hard thing for me to say.

If your having a bet this evening be careful as the Carling cup often throws up a few upsets, but if you want to many some easy money, go to the bank get as much as you can and put it on Sunderland to WIN. 100% confidence!!!!!!!!

14.35 Ayr Music Show

cant seem to take my eyes off MUSIC SHOW in the 2.35 at Ayr.

looks to be improving with every run, i think it is well hanicapped and has a massive chance of beating the favorite who i beleieve is way overpriced for what he has achieved. Channon is not sneding a horse all the way to ayr for the experinece he expects it to win

so with that i have £150ew at 8/1 with bet365

still struggling to finalise the teams,

working on teams

feeling a bit under the weather but working on teams now.

i will simply post teams and bets, hope ive not got the swine flu.

horses will be up by luchtime hopefully

profits going the right way BUT

well have made a slight profit this week but for all the hard work it doesnt seem worth it. wish i had put the two naps in a double, it just doesnt seem to be going my way this week, the wins have basically cancelled out the lossess, ok i suppose still up just over 3.5k since i started so should not really complain as things didnt start too well. will bypass the europa league in the thinking that i will spend time on the weekend selections. Horses and teams to follow, teams will be posted on firday with horses either late friday or early saturday morning.

good luck

Comments

Took off all the comment moderating so should be easier for comments to be made.

please feel free to make comments, some interaction would be good.

good or bad like to get some feedback as to how i could improve, not really the best at posting or updating. any items for improvement!!!

please post

Best football chant of the weekend 88.26 mins "We are top the league, say we are top the league" says its all about the Newcastle fan. Class!!!!!

Wednesday bets

Typing this out for the second time after a computer problem, always a pisser when that happens. maybe the wine?? who knows,

Well wolfsburg won easy in the end, slight panic, but easy in the end.

Wednesday bets comprise of two teams.

Newcastle and Dynamo Kiev.

Firstly Kiev the return of shevchenko and team strengthening should see a comfortable home win. the even money should be snapped up. hills/vc/ boylesports . you can get better at bet365, but i'll not be able to get a grand on. £1000 win Dynamo kiev. evens.

The difference will be shevchenko, look at his champs league record!!! can someone tell me the last time Kiev got beat at home!!!

Secondly my beloved Newcastle, always a sucker for putting up my own team, but just starting to realise that they may be just too good for this league the 6/5 at betfred is tooo tempting to ignore. so £500 win.

£500 double at betfred Newcastle/ kiev, just so we can gets on. will split the bets 200/300 Internet/high street.odds decimal 4.2 betfred

to recap.

NAP OF THE DAY DYNAMO KIEV £1000 win evens


Newcastle £500 win 5/6



£500 dounle on Newcastle/ Kiev. 4.2 dec.



anyone with anytime check out the charlton highlights on bbc i player its still pisses me off !!!!!

good luck

a small profit

well.

Wolfsburg won, was nearly sweating but easy win as expected in the end. Ipswich had the best of it but came short again, disappointing after that early goal should have set it up.

QPR called off - what the fuck!!! they took my money, should get it back tomorrow.

just preparing teams for tomorrow

anyone into wine sainsbury is doing wolfsblass half price, very nice!!!


bets to follow.

Tonights Bets

Writing this from work, have some bets on some to get on after work.

 

The weekend didn't go to plan, just seen the Charlton game two goals disallowed!!!!! Are you F@@King kidding me or what.

 

Was nursing my wounds over the last day or so but also been doing some detailed research into tonight's matches.

 

Was contemplating a big punt on a Chelsea / Real Madrid Double but the odds look too short.

 

So I have focused my attention on teams that need to win.

 

First up is Ipswich at 13/10 at Boylesports looks a decent price.  Keano has come out fighting this week and may only have a few games left to save his skin.  Ipswich are playing well to be fair and have lots of chances in games, its only going to take someone to start putting em away and they will get back up the league.

 

Second QPR, Corals 10/11, Hills 10/11 my bogie team!!! I fancy them tonight against Palace who I feel are one of the poorest teams in this division.  Again QPR need to click at home but I feel they will come good tonight

 

In the Champions League I feel I have found a team who are vastly underrated in terms of ability, this is reflected in the price.  The Team – WOLFSBURG 4/5 generally

 

Last seasons German champions take on a side who has one of the worst away records in Chamions League history and who are managed by one of the worse managers ever to set foot on British soil  Ramos.  Wolksburg were unlucky to lose at home to Bayer L. 3-2 at the weekend and will be going out all guns blazing to get their first win in the Champs League.  The pace of Martins up front should ensure chances are a plenty.  Anyone who has ever seen a Wolfsburg game will see the passions and atmosphere created by the fans and its in a caldron like this that the Russians usually collapse.

 

So have managed to get £500 on the phone with bookies and will be going to the high street after work to meet a pal and between us I expect to get the other £500 on.

 

So it's a grand WOLFSBURG to win 4/5 generally Nap of the day

 

Ipswich £500 win 13/10 got on with Boylesports, spread the bet over 2 accounts, no bother getting on

 

QPR £500 win 10/11 - £200 corals on the phone, £100 hills, rest on the high street tonight

 

Will also have a £100 treble on the three teams noted. Just for a bit of fun!!!!!!!!

not the start i was looking for

umm.
not the start i was looking for. fallon looked to have judged the pace well, but the horse just drifted away in the end.

Not to worry. going to have an e/w bet on the ledger.

Monitor Closley £200ew. 4/1 generally on the net, lads/corals/hills/bet365

I believe this horse has an outsanding chance on recent efforts, has rock solid form. looks to be improving, will like the going and i am 95% will at least get a place so this is a bet to nothing. i feel it will win thats why iam backing it but as always in these events something can come along to mock you.

going to the gym after this to watch the footie so no more bets today. betting more than i should but i feel iam on a roll (famous last words!!!!!)

phew. bets on could it be any hotter today

well got the bets on and got a sweat on its boiling today.

also had a cheeky £100 treble on anytime goalscores

£100 just over 13/1 with bet365.

Torres 4/7
Darren bent 11/10
Loyd Sam 10/3

Cant believe the price for Lolyd Sam the kid is on fire!!!!

good luck

putting this up early - cant believe the value

I keep going on about the Fallon factor, but at 8/1 Jaconet 14.25 doncaster is a cracking e/w bet. the horse has solid form and is on a hatrick. just watch the way it won its last race. Barron is a rogue and will have this horse primed for this prize. With top jockey Fallon on board he is almost certain to at least steal a place. Check out his form on the ground and puts everthing in his favor. iam keen on this.

going out now to get this 8/1 will be putting £200 ew on what i believe is the value bet of the day. will be looking elsewhere as well today once bets are on good luck

nothing like a bad party to get the betting juices flowing

well the party was shite and i have bailed early.

so i have some time to put some background to the teams

Charlton 4/6 corals £500 win single
most of the talk in this division surround Leeds and Jermaine beckford. well the kid is decent but hyped. Loyd Sam in my opinion is something special, pace, strength and an eye for goal. i feel he will be the difference here. Charlton are flying and confidence is high, a team in form against the bottom side at 4/6 corals a steal!!!
95% confidence


Preston 4/5 Hills - £500 win single

unbeaten this season, decent home record, hard working, decent historic homes form
Irvine will be pushing this team, make no mistake about it, a hard working decent outfit who i feel will dispose of Swansea by 1 or 2 goals. Swansea lack that cutting edge since Gomez and Scotland have departed, too many no mark foreign players fill the ranks and whilst they have 5 points so far, i don't expect them to get too many more. Preston will win 85% confidence, as always the championship is a battlefield but my money is down!!!!!


price for the double

3.19 dec. corals £300

good luck

teams for the weekend

going out now.

have two teams for the weekend. i feel both have outstanding chances, back them single and then double them up.

Charlton £500 win single

Preston £500 win single

Plus a double on Charlton and Preston £300 both to win

will be using best price on the high street for bets. sorry for the short post had planned on a detailed writeup but the Misses is dragging me out to a party, so will be spending most of sat morning trawling the bookies to get the bets on.

good luck if you re following, will post horses up by 1.30pm


Kind R


Lea

working on weekend bets now

just a word to say i have been going through the weekend teams with a fine tooth comb and will be providing a detailed update on selections. will be waiting until sat, to put up horses, i think the prices will hold until then.

kind r lea

BOOOOM

Well what a night.

going to have fun collecting my winnings tomorrow.

will be posting up some detailed bets for the weekend, i appreciate that sometimes my selections don't come with much detail, but people have to appreciate that with work and getting the bets on i simply haven't got time, this is an area i know i need to work on.

but at the minute, i dont give a f**K won over £2k in one night YESSSSSSSSSS

that's my backslapping over.

hope you all enjoy the footie, lets start preparing for the weekend.

Good luck


Lea

football - time to get revenge - back in style

England - £500 win 8/13 generally lads/ bet365/stan james

Its time for England to get revenge over the croats. the defeat last time will still be fresh in the memory of most of these players and i fancy a 2/3 nil scoreline.

cappelo's boys have a great record and can seal a place in the world cup tomorrow night. people will go on how Croatia do well against England but i think England will dispose of a team who without modric are lacking that vital link to bring the team together.

Portugal £500 win 4/7 lads

they simply have to win and will!!!!!!!!!

Italy £500 win - 2/5 bet 365

a comfortable home win, odds are short but a wins a win 100% confidence


plus a £500 acca, England, Portugal and Italy. 3.38dec. Ladbrokes

good luck if your following

updating and more bets

Well apologies I've taken my time to update blog, took longer than expected to get back in the swing of things what with work and wot not.

made a slight profit over the holidays but nothing really to shout home about, could have been much worse if Chelsea and drogba and anelka hadn't came in so I'll take some comfort from that.

feeling refreshed now so will follow this with a couple of football bets for tommorrow night. will be updating regularly now. good luck if your betting

Saturday selections

I'll keep this short as iam up late, still havent updated profit loss, have a hangover and need to get bets on.

Lucikly i had them worked out erly yesterday afternoon.

Firstly the international games, i am going on the basis that the teams that need to win will be going all guns blazing.

Scotland 8/11 generally. lads, corals,betfred £300 win

Portugal 6/5 generally, lads corals £300 win

High standing 9/2 corals £150 ew - THE FALLON FACTORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR


GOOD LUCK. WILL UPDATE WITH SOME DETAILED THOUGHTS TOMMORROW. apologies for the short write up need to get bets on and going out for the england match

Refreshed and ready to go again

Well I've had a great holiday and iam ready to go again. The only thing that pissed me off was the Aussies losing the cricket, how unpatriotic of me...........

will be updating the results over the next couple of days, not great but there is a long way to go. bets will be posted on Saturday morning just easing my way back into work and stuff so please bear with me.