Fw: Man City Reasoning

Some of you have commented that my write-ups on bets are not detailed enough.  This is because of two reasons, firstly I spend most of the time analysing and studying before I decide which bets to place and secondly getting the bets on takes a while.  I have tonight picked Man City to beat West Ham on both the normal betting market and the handicap (-1). Hopefully the following will give you an insight into how I come up with my assumptions:-

 

Please bear in mind this is the detailed analysis that goes into each selections

 

First the historic stats. Then the current stats, my assumptions, then the likely outcome.

 

Over the course of the last 3 seasons West Ham have played 57 premier away games, won 15, drawn 13, and lost 29.

 

They have scored in 84% of away games which is quite high when you compare with other teams in or around the top 10, but on average statistically they have conceded in every game.  That's not to say they conceded in every game but over the last 3 years they have conceded 1.4 goals per game away from home

 

Key stat – concede over 1.4 goals per away game

 

Over the course of the last 3 seasons Man city have played 57 premier home games, won 29, drawn 10 and lost 18.

 

They have scored on average in every home game, 1.36 goals per game.  Just looking over the last two seasons that is 1.78 goals per game. i.e when they started to bring in good players

 

Key stat Man City score on average 1.78 goals per home game

 

Key stat - West Hams heaviest away defeat was at Man City 2008/09 where they were gubbed 3 -0

 

Looking at this season

 

West Ham played 5, scored 5, concede 6, won 1, lost 3, drawn 1

 

Man City played 5, scored 11, conceded 6, won 4, lost 1, drawn 0

 

Stats wise – West Ham

 

West Ham win % 20% of games played won

Goals scored 1.0 per game

Goals conceded 1.2 per game

 

Whilst they have scored 1 goal per game away form home, 2 came against wolves and 1 against Bolton who between them have high goals against ratio

Key stat only one game won this season

 

Stats wise – Man City

 

Man City win % 80% of games played they have won

Goals scored per game 2.2

Goals conceded per game 0.8

 

Key stat, won 4 out of 5 and scoring 2.2 per game

 

To be fair were very unlucky to lose at the champions Man U.

 

My assumption is based on the following

 

In my view I feel Man City homes goals per game ratio will increase this season as they have a much improved squad with a number of proven premier league goalscorers.  Just looking at the last 3 seasons there has been a steady increase in this ratio.  Bear in mind that the team has never been better equipped to score than this season and current form figures back up this trend.

 

Looks like Santa Cruise is back, plus bellamy and Tevez who combined will provide goals

 

In terms of West Ham, whilst they have a decent historic away goals scored ratio, current form is very poor which means they will score less goals.  Across the previous seasons away form has been above average and as such the goals were scored.  I can see them conceding at least 2 goals this evening, based on the above noted facts. plus I simply cant see them scoring and feel Man City will just have too much for them.

 

 

Hope this gives a little insight.

 

PLEASE COMMENT

 

 

 sorry haven't got time to do the tevez first/ last goal reasoning