back home for a few hours before setting off again

looks like we need a miracle in the cricket. on my way to church now so lets start praying.

might be able to update later this week as place i am staying at has tinternet.

this is short so aplogogies

NIGHT CRU 15.00 newton abbot 11/2 hills £150 ew

Won well last time, has solid form, top jockey, handles the ground. lump on.

Chelsea 8/15 generally lads, hills, betfred, 365.

chelsea are looking strong and i fancy them to win by 2/3 today. £500 win

plus Drogba to score anytime 13/8 corals £250 and Anelka to score anytime 15/8 corals £250.

i feel chelsea will create chances and i fancy goals strongly!!!!!!!!

bets for the week ahead

well. close tonight but no cigar. horse looked to be travelling well but just pipped, some you win some you lose.

have been getting bets on this evening already, going to be going in big by my standards over the next few days on what i believe are excellent chances of success. I thought i would adopt this approach as i will be having a couple of weeks off due to holidays and i want to increase the profits for when i come back. that sounded quite arrogant[, not meant to be but i believe i have identified winning opportunities

Like tonight's meteors showers here come the bets

Australia to win the final test match 6/5 Ladbrokes/Corals £2500 win NAP

I feel the Australians have the but between their teeth, England have dropped players and don't appear to have decided yet on the starting lineup. relying on a half fit flintoff is too much of a risk in my view. Don't normally bet on cricket but the Aussies should be shorter, weather forecast looks OK so i expect an comfortable win for Aussies,


Golf USPGA - Woods is looking good and whilst i feel he is 85% certain to win i just cant back him at the price after his open collapse there are too many with chances in the field and whilst i don't mind lumping on short priced favs Woods is a nono in my book. I hope the following players will do me justice.


The Spanish enigma Sergio Garcia £100 ew 35/1 bet365

Anthony Kim £50 ew 50/1 bet365

WESTWOOOOOOOD Lee Westwood £25ew 30/1 bet365



Great St Wilfred

£100 ew valory borzov 12/1 William hills

a tough filly looks to have good ew chance putting this up early so i hope the ground/ draw is in her favor been running well and i think she has a race like this in her.

Ebor - Red Merlin 8/1 betfred £100 ew

looks like the money horse of the race, wish it was my acca going on this one. trainer has confirmed it will be going all out for this, looks well treated on previous form, don't think ground conditions will be a problem. so a good e/w option

Yorkshire Oaks - midday 5.2 Betfair £100 win NB, backed. Note if its available at 5/1 or bigger back it 100 e/w with a BOG bookie

A horse i really like, has the profile to win this, trainer thinks it will go well, should handle the ground, all the talk is on the favorite but the last time it met midday there are excuses for my horse. so with that the 5.2 looks a bit of value, when prices come out if it is 5/1 or bigger back it e/w


Football - odds in decimal

Chelsea, Man U, Man City £1000 accumulator betfred 3.17 Betfred.
The top three should make easy meat of the opposition, man city are a fantastic price for an away win seemed to have been priced up on last years form with no recognition of the signings made. Chelsea and man u will win simply as that, nothing more to say on the matter


Newcastle, Villa, Cardiff £500 accumulator 8.93 Bet365


my beloved newcastle played well on saturday and with the home drowd behind em i expect a home win, villa should have too much for wigan, too much pace and power by a mile. cardiff play against the luckiest team this year blackpool, how they won at qpr i will never know, watch the bbc highlights if you dont belive me, cardiff won again yesteday and will have too mcuh for pool.....

so total stakes £4850 all bets on apart from the cricket, which will be on by 10.30 in the morning. my troops are redy to punch haha to steal a veitch quote!!!!

£2500 austrialia 6/5 win
£200 sergio 35/1 =100ew
£100 kim 50/1 = 5-ew
£50 westwwod 30/1 = 25ew
£200 valory bortzov = 100ew
£200 red merlin = 100ew
£100 Midday + possible £100 place
£1000 man u, chelsea, man city = 1000 acca
£500 newcastle, villa, cardiff = 500 acca

Will try to update during holiday if i can, if anyone sees a man on a bridge during the week, just ask if his name is Lea!!! hopefully it will all go to plan and i will come back refreshed and much richer.

wishing you all the best lea.

Good Luck

one in the last at hamilton

8.35 hamilton

Sunley Sovereign £100ew at 9/1 bet365

course and distance winner already off higher weight

stable in fine form this week, ruth carr seems to be coming into form.

been racing over further, the step back to 5F will suit

great ew value

just seen this so sorry for late post.

will be posting up bets either later today or tommorow.

going in big so be prepared

PATCH PATCH -18.40 MUSS

WON WELL LAST TIME

DODDS IN GOOD FORM

NOTHING ELSE OF NOTE IN THE FIELD

LOOKS AN IMPROVER 11/4 CORALS

£150 WIN

Update

Well what a weekend.  Still feeling a little groggy even today.  Was thinking late last week that we had make good progress in terms of profit in a month, maybe that led to me thinking that I should go in with large stakes for the opening day of the season, should have known better.  Middlesborogh dissapointed, followed by QPR, who by all accounts bossed the game and Cradiff won easily so I got the analysis spot on for one team at least.  The horse selcetions dissapointed as well, couple of places to get out of jail really.  It took me 3 and a half hours to get the bets on, on saturday and I then retreated to the pub for 11 hours, ended up drowning my sorrows and it was looking pretty bleak until last night when I decided to have a couples of nudges.  Have my dad to thank for the winner in the last, apprantley his mate reckoned it would skate in and was mad keen on it, it did just win and has appeared to have got me out of the mire.  Still about a grand down from last Friday morning but still in profit since I started so that's a postive.

 

Will be on my tod this evening so will be looking at the cards and will be highly likley to put up some slections.  Going on holiday on Friday for 2 weeks, so unless I can get on somehere will not be posting for a while!!!!!

 

The US PGA starts soon and have been looking in depth at the players, Woods looks to be in fine form at 7/4 no real value, but if he wins it could look like a snip.  Padraig 22/1 from memory, should have never corrected his swing , maybe though there is a little fire in his belly might sneak a place, others woth looking at westwood, garcia

 

The Premiership and the Ebor coming up, Dads going to Ebor so should have no problem getting on, on course.  Will Sea the Stars win, I'll not be backing it, probabley will LOL. 

 

Don't really bet on the cricket but word is that the Aussies looked nailed on at 5/4 umm contenplating it.

 

Will post up selctions for the golf/ football and ebor later tonigt. Maybe the cricket if I can convince myself on the stats.

 

 

Regards

 

 

 

Lea

 

lucky art £500 win 8.30 thirsk

£500 win bet365 3/1

will write up later

mustajed 8.20 windsor

£100 ew 12/1 ladbrokes

will post writeup later

squirtle 8pm thirsk

£100 ew bet365 11/2

will write up later

sick as a dog today

terrible terrible terrible

hangover from hell today

time for some reflection

BETS FOR SAT

BETS FOR SATURDAY

THIS IS GOING TO BE MY BIGGEST BETTING DAY BY FAR AND HAVE NEARLY ALL OF THE BETS PLACED APART FROM THE FOOTIE. WILL BE UP EARLY SO THAT I CAN GET IT ON AND TAKE SOME TIME TO RELAX BEFORE WHAT I HOPE IS A PROFITABLE AFTERNOON. IAM GOING AWAY ON HOLIDAYS SOON SO WILL BE OUT OF ACTION FOR A WHILE AND I WANT A DECENT PROFIT MARGIN FOR THE FIRST MONTH OF THE BLOG. HOPE YOU ARE ALL ENJOYING IT, BEEN A BIT UP AND DOWN THIS MONTH AND POSTING UP THE SELECTIONS MAKE YOU THINK A LITTLE MORE.

THE HORSES CHOSEN ALL HAVE EXCELLENT CHANCES AND I HAVE WENT EW TO HOPEFULLY ENSURE SOME SORT OF RETURN. IN TERMS OF MY STRNGEST FACNY THATS HEAVEN SENT NAP, NB CAMPANOLIGIST FOLLOWED CLOSLEY BY THE OSTEPATH.

IN TERMS OF THE FOTTIE IAM DEFINATLEY STICKING WITH CARDIFF AND QPR AND JUST PUT THE BORO TO ONE SIDE, AS I SAID BEFORE I WAS UMMING AND ARRRING ON THE BORO, ALTHOUGH I DID TYPE HUMMING AND HARRING, YOU WILL NOTE MY SPELLING NOT ALWAYS A GRADE...

SO IAM GOING IN WITH DECENT SIZED BETS AS I FEEL 95% CERTAIN BOTH TEAMS WILL WIN

GOOD LUCK IF YOUR BETTING


SENT FROM HEAVEN 3PM NEWMARKET 9/2 BET365 £250 EW

TRIANER HAS WON 4 OF LAST 8

THE WAY THE HORSE WON THE LAST TIME WAS IMPRESSIVE

I FEEL THE HORSE HAS MORE TO OFFER AND WITH M HILLS ON BOARD I FEEL THIS IS SURE TO BE ONE OF THE GAMBLES OF THE DAY

ITS ALSO SLIGHLY LOWER IN WIEGHT AND PEDIGREE SUGGESTS HE WILL APPRECIATE THE GIVE IN THE GROUND

TAKE THE PRICE IT WONT LAST LONG


THE OSTEPATH 2.10PM HAYDOCK 7/1 BET365 £250EW

HORSE IS BANG IN FORM

TRAINER IS BANG IN FORM

WILL HANDLE THE GROUND

DECENT JOCKEY

GREAT E/W VALUE


CAMPANOLIGIST 2.40PM 9/2 HAYDOCK £250 EW WILLIAM HILL

HORSE DOPS BACK IN TRIP SLIGHLY

FRANKIE HAS CHOSEN TO RIDE THIS TODAY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE NEWMARKET HORSES

WILL PICK UP FROM LAST RACE THIS IS SLIGHTY EAISER , DIDN’T TRAVEL TOO WELL LAST TIME, TODAY WILL BE DIFFERENT


IN TERMS OF THE FOOTBALL

I STILL BELIEVE THAT CARDIFF AND QPR ARE GOOD THINGS AND HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW UP TODAYS HORRO SHOW WITH THE FOLLOWING

CARDIFF £500 WIN 4/6 lads or corals. Will have to go high street as putting on in cash

QPR £500 WIN 8/11 lads or corals. Will have to go high street as putting on in cash

£500 DOUBLE ON CARDIFF & QPR lads or corals offering same prices

A FUCKING HORROR SHOW!!!!!!!

ONE SHOT ON TARGET!!!!!!

says it all really. i have seriously overestimated boro or seriously underestimated sheff united either way the weekend bets are down before Saturday has even come. not to worry have been putting in 3 hours of research this evening and plan to go in heavy tomorrow.

i will update in a while or so when i have got most of the money on its a bit of a pain having to do it in numerous smalls bets, but needs must. hoping for a better day,

will update shortly

why the teams plus another bet

I think the boro will simply have too much pace up front for sheff untd.

 

Anyone who has seen emnes knows he is very quick and in this division that gets you goals.  i'm hoping Lita plays as i think these too can tear the sheff utd defence apart.  some key untd players are out paddy kenny, lee hendrie, they do have the debut biy ched evans but in my view he is an average player who lacks pace.  Sheff utd are fancied in some quaters but i dont think they will cope with a resurgant boro who will be looking to get off to a good start

 

boro have been going well in pre season and seem to have a setttled team, i expect a comfortable 2-3 to nil win.

 

the other two teams i fancy are cardiff and qpr.

 

cardiff have a little class in this division, ledley, bootroyf and chopra all set to play, had been unlucky last season they should be able to get a playoff place this season.  at home to scunthorpe should be an easy 3 points, scunthorpe have just came into the division and look a poor side, if fact they have always been a poor side, again i fancy cardiff to win by 2 or 3 comfortably

 

QPR, have the backing and the players i feel this season to get an automtic spot. ddint really perform as expected last season but this time round i think we will see improvement.  Blackpool had a good record against QPR last season, but the team now appears to be full of journeyman and if the ex ipswich forward billy clarke is all qpr have to worry about then it should be another 3 easy points by 2 or 3 goals

 

 

I will also have £50 on Emnes to score first  7/1 bet365

 

and £50 on Emnes to score last 7/1 bet365

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COME ON BORO COME ON BORO

Well Ive hummed and harred all afternoon as to whether or not to put boro in my three team acca and put them up as my nap of the weekend and i have come to the thinking that i should follow my gut instinct and back the boro. I will also include Cardiff and QPR in the weekend treble.

Middlesboro. 13/10 BET365 £500 win - NAP


Three team acca with BET 365. £200 treble

Boro 13/10
cardiff 4/6
QPR 8/11

you can get better odds on betfair but i don't know at this point if those odds are still there. BET 365 are definitely there.

I will post my reasoning in the next post but need to start getting bets on now, should take about 40 Min's will be back

One in the last at sandown

Bomber brown £150 win 3/1 bet365


making his debut in this company

low weight, may have a bit in hand with some of these who are regressive imo

won well last time

decent price

Good luck

Fw: PUKKA PIES DONT COMPROMISE!!!!!!!!

The start of the Pukka Pies Don't Compromise league starts on Friday night; the excitement is nearly killing me NOT.  The championship and lower leagues are some of the hardest to predict, but sometimes we can find a team/ teams that can scrape home by the odd goal.  This season looks tough in the Championship with my beloved Newcastle , WBA and Boro looking to bounce straight back, throw in Ipswich , QPR, Palace, plus the odd surprise package the Championship looks the place to be.

 

I hear were going to have the delights of a new Match of the Day program showing championship highlights, I wonder what they will call it, surely not Match of the Day 3.  Anyway enough of my ramblings, I am taking careful consideration over the weekend selections and have a few teams in mind so far

 

Boro, MK Dons, QPR, Cardiff , Charlton and Norwich

 

Early analysis leads me to thinking that they may be a little over priced; I will narrow the teams down to a maximum of 4 selections.   I've found over recent season that it is possible to have a 7/8/9 team acca up but there is always one lets you down, notably my team Newcastle , so I have tended to focus more on doubles and trebles with a decent strike rate, he says!!!.  I do tend to favor home team early in the season , just because we cant really start assessing away form until a least say 10 games in, that's not to say I wouldn't put up an away team as a selection.

 

Will also have some horse race selections for Friday and Saturday, have a couple in mind but need to start looking at previous races.  The attheraces archive is a great tool, seen as I am not going to use the Racing Post website, can't believe they are making you pay for the service, has left a bad taste in my mouth!!!!!

 

 

Will update later today

 

 

Good luck if you're betting

 

 

 

Lea

 

 

That will do nicely

a 14/1 winner at last, with the footie season just round the corner, just the boost i needed. takes us to about 2k profit in less than a month so not to bad. will be posting up a summary of the month prior to my 2 weeks holiday. taking my time before the weekend to try and find some teams that we can perm up in doubles and trebles.

i do love an accumulator on a Saturday followed by a few pints and sky sports, doesn't always go down too well with the missus like,

hope you are all well, as you can probably tell i am quite happy.

will post up any horses for Friday, on Thursday night when i should also be putting up the footie selections.

good luck

Lea

One in the last at kempton

Haafhd Time (IRE)

has won at the track

down in wieght

back in distance

trainer has knack of big priced winners at this track

looking at the form last time seemed he raced too keenly. I expect Kingscote, to sit in the middle and come late. at 14/1 Victor Chandler looks at cracking 50 ew bet

MAJOR MAGPIE MAGIC!!!!!!!!

Seen as my beloved team Newcastle is up the creek without a paddle I have turned my attentions today to a horse I think has an excellent e/w chance.

Major Magpie 4.40 Pontefract. 50ew at 6/1 Bet365

Reasons

1) Proven course and distance winner. Horse appears to love the track. 4/5 here

2) Dodds the trainer in fine form, won a good race at carlisle the opther night with a newcomer Mr Grinch – Should have backed it!!!!

3) His other poor races can seem to be excused as he doesn’t seem to like other tracks, strange but true.

I think its well in on previous form, will need to pick up at little but at 6/1 makes a value bet IMO.

Will be updating later today with some football bets and more horses, been busy at work but will try to update daily

Good luck

Lea

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

NAP at Market Rasen - SHIWAVA

Its looks like i have identified a sure thing, LOL. No seriously, i like the look of this horse

1) Proven course and distance winning form
2) down in weight
3) should be able to dictate race as field is reduced due to non runners
4) the others have major questions to answer notably Mccoys mount who has going to have to be some horse on the ratings to beat Shiwava. the price is short because Mccoy is on board and the bookies are wanting to get it backed.

I am 95% confident that Shiwava will skate in and at 10/11 bet365 BOG i am going to have £500 WIN on now must go as i need to get this money on now.

Good luck

GREED GREED GREED

Well greed got the better of me last night. I wasn't even going to have a bet until my mate called, i didn't even spend a great deal of time on the last race at Hamilton and i have paid the price, wont be making that stupid mistake again. Just goes to show how greed effects us i thought i could just look at the card and find the winner, BANG just like that,

I was having such a good day.

anyway the football starts next week and hopefully we should have some decent jump racing coming up. Going to spend the next hour or so looking to see if there is anything of interest today.

Lea

getting the stakes right - future staking plan

It appears that i keeping making errors when i'm putting bets up on the blog and then referncing them on OBLG i am not always puttting in the same stake. this is beacuse 1) i'm rushing too much, 2) sometimes the bank on OBLG wont allow me to match stakes. All my bets are referenced there but ths LSP and other stat figures look shite as i have failed to put in correct stakes. My apologies

I know i mentioned this in an earlier post but i have failed to follow my own words, so i will adopt the folliwng staking plan so that all bets will reflect my stakes and we should see the stats improve somewhat. its pretty straighforward

blog bet	oblg stake
50	50
100	100
150	150
200	200
1000	500
2000	1000

DOOM HAYMAR back it

had a quick look back at previous form.

this one won at the track last time, its 1lb lower now and has makin back on board.

the 5/1 with corals looks way too big, so i'll have £250 ew thankyou.

will get bet on oblg now


good luck

never listen to your mate at the track

my mate at hamilton rang to say that the horse was getting well backed and he thought it looked great in the paddock. What a load of bollocks, the thing didnt even get into it, should have just let it ride, but then again if it had won i would have kicked myself.

looking at the last race at hamilton now seen as iam back on the laptop.

will post selection in a couple of minutes

8.40 hamilton - old firm 33/1

just had word backing it £50ew at 33/1 bet365.

I LOVE BOG BOOKIES- Zacinto

You can imagine my delight when i walked into betfred and seen the horse i advised at 7/4 trading at 5/2, fuck me i though it drifted out like a bad thing, i was sure it was a goner, but seeing it romp home i was delighted even more delighted when i realised it was BOG haha, Now i did advise at 7/4 betfred, so i should be able to post up the winner as 5/2 is that fair i think it is, if i had advised another bookie i would have had to take my oil, but i will post up the winner as 5/2
2.30 Goodwood. Zacinto. 7/4 betfred advised , returned 5/2

Something strange also happened today as i was asked in the shop if i had placed another bet on the same horse at the other shop, now i did do, but of course i denied it, she left it at that really no real enquiry, will get a pal to pick up them winnings I had placed 2 x £200 and my pal had placed a £100 win, a little food for though i think will keep out for a while.

back over a grand in profit, advising on the blog is more stressful than i thought but enjoyable on days like this.

Lea

Saturday bets

Out and about today so havent got that much time for analysis, but here goes .

I like the look of a couple today.

2.30 Goodwood. Zacinto. 7/4 betfred. I think that the horse is potentailly well treated, the yard is in fine form this week and looks to have some improvemenmt to come. I'll make this the nap of the day. price is short but hey hoy £500 win.

2.10 Newmarket. Exotic Beauty. 10/1s most places. Won its last in good style,and was well backed has been placed on all 3 occasions, i think it will improve for the cut in the ground. £100 ew.


3.40 Goodwood Binou 18/1 bet365. looks to have been laid out for this just seen trainer interview on attheraces, which led me to look at previous form, nothing much to get excitied about, but i'll take my chance at big odds. £50ew


off shopping now, cant wait will be watching in the bookies


Good luck